Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ambitious diplomatic strategy to court major powers has backfired spectacularly, with his carefully cultivated relationships with both US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping deteriorating into embarrassing setbacks that have left India’s global influence diminished.
Modi’s initial gamble was on China. In 2014, he welcomed Xi with a red-carpet reception in Gujarat, sharing a symbolic riverfront swing in his home state. However, even as the leaders displayed camaraderie, Chinese troops clashed with Indian forces along the disputed border — the first in what would become a series of confrontations forcing India to maintain tens of thousands of troops in the Himalayas for years.
Years later, Modi pivoted to Washington, viewing the US as a counterweight to China. He invested heavily in the relationship with Trump, even breaking protocol to campaign for the former president’s re-election at a packed Houston rally. The Biden administration maintained cordial ties despite this partisan gesture, with Modi famously telling Congress that “AI” stood for “America and India”.
Trump’s Tariff Blow
That goodwill evaporated in Trump’s second term. The US president imposed a crushing 50% tariff on Indian goods, calling India’s economy “dead” and citing New Delhi’s purchases of Russian oil. According to Time magazine, Modi had “misread Trump” despite banking on warm personal ties.
The tariffs, which took effect on August 7, target key Indian exports including textiles, footwear, gems and jewelry — sectors comprising nearly 55% of India’s exports to its largest market. Former Republican Governor Chris Sununu warned that the tariffs were “scaring US manufacturers the most,” emphasizing that India “is going to be the world player”.
Trump further inflamed Indian sentiment by giving Pakistan “equal footing” in mediating regional conflicts, a move that prompted private diplomatic protests from New Delhi and angered Modi’s nationalist base.
The diplomatic rebuffs have forced India back toward its traditional doctrine of “strategic autonomy” — avoiding deep alliances while maintaining contradictory partnerships. Modi has reopened channels with Beijing despite unresolved border disputes and China’s backing of Pakistan during recent military escalations.
Modi is scheduled to visit China from August 31 to September 1 for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit — his first trip there since the 2020 Galwan Valley border clash. The visit signals India’s pivot away from exclusive Western alignment.youtube
Simultaneously, Modi has deepened engagement with Moscow, with plans to host President Vladimir Putin later this year. According to The New York Times, this reflects India’s return to a “patchwork of contradictory partnerships”.
Former Indian ambassador Nirupama Rao noted that Trump’s tariff move had “upended the strategic logic of a very consequential partnership” that had been carefully nurtured over two decades. She warned of “very pragmatic strategic recalibrations” by New Delhi to protect its interests.
Modi publicly acknowledged this week that he might pay a “personal political price” for the trade dispute, framing his defiance as defending “farmers, fishermen and dairy farmers”. The setbacks have exposed limitations to India’s global power despite its massive economy and growing influence, forcing a moment of “deep introspection” as the country navigates between superpowers that have shown no hesitation to diminish its standing.
