GasBuddy, a reliable fuel price tracker, projected that average U.S. gas prices over the Labor Day weekend 2025 would be $3.15 per gallon, making it the lowest Labor Day weekend average since 2020.
This projection reflects a five-year low specifically for the Labor Day holiday weekend, not for prices “under Trump” in an ongoing sense.
What’s Misleading
- The phrasing “Gas prices under President Trump hit a 5-year low” implies a consistent, administration-wide trend directly attributable to Trump’s term. That goes beyond the available data.
- While the current Labor Day price is indeed low relative to the last five years, attributing it solely to Trump’s policies oversimplifies the reality.
- Fuel prices are influenced by multiple complex factors—global oil prices, seasonal demand, refinery outages, geopolitical tensions, and broader economic cycles—not just presidential action.
| Claim | Fact-Check |
|---|---|
| “Gas prices under President Trump hit a 5-year low over Labor Day weekend” | Partially true: Labor Day 2025 prices are projected to be lowest in five years (since 2020), but attributing it solely to Trump is misleading. |
| “5-year low under Trump” implies long-term strategy success | Not supported—limited to holiday weekend comparison. |
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So, yes—Labor Day 2025 gas prices are indeed projected to be the lowest in five years—but the broader narrative that this is a result of Trump’s presidency overall is exaggerated.
Labor Day Gas Prices: In-Depth Insights
National Price Snapshot
- GasBuddy forecasts the average U.S. gas price for Labor Day weekend at $3.15 per gallon, which is 14 cents lower than Labor Day 2024.
- This marks the lowest holiday fuel cost since Labor Day 2020, when the average was $2.22 per gallon.
Five-Year Comparison
Here are the Labor Day average prices over the years:
- 2020: $2.22/gal
- 2021: $3.16/gal
- 2022: $3.79/gal
- 2023: $3.77/gal
- 2024: $3.29/gal
- 2025 (projected): $3.15/gal
Key Drivers of Price Decline
- Lower Crude Oil Costs: Wholesale gasoline futures dropped to about $2.14 per gallon by late August, and WTI crude hovered near $63 per barrel, easing retail prices.
- Strong Refinery Output: Increased production capacity helped keep supplies steady amid waning demand.
- Seasonal Demand Drop: As summer road trips wind down, demand is falling—averaging 8.84 million barrels per day in late August.
- Transition to Winter Fuel Blends: The shift back to cheaper winter gas in mid-September is expected to offer further relief.
Regional Variances
- Cheapest States: Mississippi ($2.68), Oklahoma ($2.70), Louisiana ($2.72), Texas ($2.74)
- Highest States: California ($4.49), Hawaii ($4.46), Washington ($4.39)
These differences reflect local taxes, supply logistics, and refinery issues.
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Economic & Travel Context
- Affordable Travel: It’s shaping up to be the “cheapest summer to hit the road since the pandemic,” with lower gas, airfares, hotel rates, and car rentals.
- Risks Remain: Experts point to hurricane threats, geopolitical tensions, and trade uncertainties—like the ongoing conflict in Ukraine—that could push prices up.
- Future Outlook: Analysts remain optimistic that prices could even dip below $3 per gallon this fall if conditions remain stable.
| Aspect | Details |
|---|---|
| Projected Price | $3.15 per gallon – lowest since 2020 |
| 5-Year Trend | Dropped from $3.29 (2024) to $3.15 (2025) |
| Price Drivers | Lower crude, strong refinery output, seasonal demand drop, winter fuel shift |
| Regional Spread | South/Midwest much cheaper, West Coast significantly higher |
| Outlook | Potential for sub-$3 prices if risks are contained |
